How To Admit a Mistake in War, And How Not To

Contrast this responsible statement with Gen. Milley’s “righteous strike” excuse. https://t.co/ygPbmH77eX https://t.co/zEbrzBTlAv

— TSB (@TweetingTSB) April 3, 2024

UN: Why So Choosy About Which Atrocities You Condemn?

Israel's Ambassador to UN proposes an alternative Resolution to the one just passed (2728) calling for a ceasefire, thanks to U.S. not vetoing—and there's a plot twist. pic.twitter.com/0kVDIDvBBO

— Daniel Roth (@daniel_c_roth) March 25, 2024

Recognizing One, Two ... How Many Palestinian States?

Cue the rainbows and unicorns, because Hope is just about ready to break out once again in this world of trouble. Or in parts of Europe, anyway. 

Read about it here: Ireland standing ready to recognise Palestine state 'gives hope'.

Ireland, Spain, Malta and Slovenia standing ready to recognise the Palestine state has given Palestinians "hope," [Palestinian ambassador to Ireland Dr Jilan Abdalmajidits] has said.

Earlier, in a joint-statement, the four countries' prime ministers said they were ready to recognise the Palestine state when the "circumstances are right".

You may wonder what, exactly, are those circumstances? And who decides when they are 'right?' 

Who knows? To my mind, only after all Hamas fighters have been killed will there be any point in even thinking about post-conflict reconstruction. But that's why I'd never make an EU small country Prime Minister. 

Before you break out the champagne, see this part of the statement:

"We agreed that the only way to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region is through implementation of a two-state solution, with Israeli and Palestinian States living side-by-side, in peace and security," the statement said.

Now, that phrase "Palestinian States" - plural states, as in more than one state - is literally correct, since there are two of them, one run by Hamas in Gaza and the other run by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. 

Yes, I know that's not the intended meaning of the phrase, but just a bit of linguistic ambiguity. However, its the almost poetic blurting out of an awkward truth, all the same.  

If any EU small country PMs want to see an Israeli state side-by-side with a single Palestinian state, then someone will first have to make peace between the two Palestinian states that currently exist. Good luck with that.

"Wake Up, Mister Jalamneh, it's Time For Your Shot"

"Hamas confirmed that Jalamneh was one of its members. The Jenin Brigade, which includes a number of Palestinian armed resistance groups, said in a statement that two of the three men were members of Islamic Jihad" (it says right here). 

This week's killing of a Hamas leader inside a West Bank hospital generated a lot of amateur commentary of the Geneva Convention-sort. Do the laws of war really prohibit troops from posing as doctors to attack an enemy in a hospital? 

Put precisely, the question is: was the Israeli action a "ruse of war" - and perfectly legitimate - or a "perfidy" of the sort the Convention prohibits?

Frankly, who cares? Modern conflict against sub-state adversaries inside dense urban terrain renders quaint any of the notions that govern war between nation states. 

Israeli troops (or maybe they were civilian agents) entered a hospital posing as medical staff or patients to carry out the highly targeted assassination of a Hamas leader and two associates who were themselves posing as patients. Was that ruse or perfidy?

It doesn't matter. Whichever, it was occurring on both sides. Hospitals lose their protected status under the laws of war when they are used for military purposes. Any surviving Hamas leaders ought to be on notice that they need to avoid hiding in hospitals - or using hospitals as arms depots, or hostage prisons, etc., etc. - if they want to stay on the good side of the Geneva Convention. 

 

A. Blinken's Surprisingly Direct Statement: Why Does Virtually No One Demand Hamas Surrender?

Everyone would like to see this conflict end as quickly as possible. But if it ends with Hamas remaining in place, and having the capacity and the stated intent to repeat October 7th again and again and again, that’s not in the interests of Israel, it’s not in the interests of the region, it’s not in the interests of the world. And what is striking to me is that even as, again, we hear many countries urging to end this conflict, which we would all like to see, I hear virtually no one saying, demanding, of Hamas, that it stop hiding behind civilians, that it lay down its arms, that it surrender. This is over tomorrow, if Hamas does that. This would have been over a month ago, six weeks ago, if Hamas had done that. And how can it be that there are no demands made of the aggressor, and only demands made of the victim? So it would be good if there was a strong international voice pressing Hamas to do what is necessary to end this. And, again — that could be tomorrow.

I have to say that I have strange new respect for our SecState after hearing that short statement. No equivocating there, no hedging, no 'constructive ambiguity' about his meaning.  

There's probably a story there about how that text got drafted and cleared before he delivered it. What parties in State and the White House agreed with it? Who tried to water it down? Who thought it didn't go far enough? 

That will all have to wait for his memoirs, I suppose.

 

From Kindergarten Plays to GoPros on Home Invaders, It's All a Performance to HAMAS

Hamas has many fewer allies these days, but at least it can still count on the western news media to play the sympathy card for them. Of course, that focuses almost exclusively on the children in Gaza. A smart decision, considering how often the adults of Gaza cannot resist the urge to be openly monstrous in front of a camera or microphone.

See, for example, these recent stories about Gaza's children by NPR, the NYT, and the BBC. 

But here's a question you don't hear much about those kids. Where does Hamas get adult men who will commit the most horrible atrocities imaginable against defenseless victims and even live-stream themselves in the act? A large part of the answer must be that they are the product of a society that raised them from childhood to do just that.  

Take the military summer camps, for instance. When they aren’t getting anti-Semitic classroom material in UNWRA schools, they can take in some fresh air along with instruction in small arms.   

It's never too early to start tomorrow's monsters out on the right course. Here's a video of a Gaza Kindergarten graduation skit from May, 2018, one apparently posted to the internet by a proud parent, in which those adorable tykes enact invading Israel. Note that at the end they take a hostage back to Gaza - that's a very important element of the drama.   

   

 

Those little cuties will be around ten years old now, and so – probably – are still too young to have participated in the pogrom of four weeks ago. Give it time. They are the future. 

We’re constantly told that Hamas does not represent Palestinians, despite it having gotten most of the vote in the only election Palestinians ever held, and contrary to all the data gathered by opinion polling. 

Frankly – and I say this after reflection – even the worst of Hamas' troops seem to represent its population quite well. The abominable monsters who committed those atrocities four weeks ago did not rise up out of nothing. They were the kindergarten kommandos of 10 or 15 or 20 years ago, now live-streaming it and still making their parents proud.

Force, the Last Resort of Nations (Mitigated By Good Manners If You're Lucky)

A convoy carrying much-needed humanitarian assistance crossed the Rafah border this morning into Gaza to address the growing humanitarian crisis. We thank our partners in Egypt and Israel, and the United Nations, for facilitating the safe passage of these life-saving shipments.

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) October 21, 2023

"Life-saving shipments." Okay, but let us be clear that what is coming to HAMAS in Gaza is about life taking, fundamentally, and there will be little scope for humanitarian considerations until that war is concluded.

Don't take it from me, take it from one of the finest judicial minds this country has ever produced.    

"I believe that force, mitigated as may be by good manners, is the ultima ratio, and between two groups of people who want to make inconsistent kinds of world I see no remedy except force." - Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.

Holmes knew about force and irreconcilable conflict, having served as an infantryman in the Civil War where he was wounded three times. At Antietam he was shot through the neck and left for dead on the field, one of 23,000 casualties in that single battle.

Be prepared to see Civil War-size casualty numbers once the Israeli Armed Forces really tear into HAMAS. Let the IDF mitigate that reality by abiding with the laws of war, to whatever extent those good manners may apply to a sub-state adversary, but realists should expect to see a nearly-Carthaginian peace imposed on HAMAS in Gaza.

  

The Conflict to be Known as The GoPro War.

This will be known as the GoPro War. https://t.co/EYzm4yv16x

— TSB (@TweetingTSB) October 15, 2023

I like the slow roll-over that is performed at the end of this clip by the HAMAS troop who was wearing the camera, that accidental videographer of his own death. 

There are hours of these clips on the internet now, from both sides. No modern conflict has been so intensively covered by body- and helmet-worn cameras. 

  

It's only forerunner is Blog del Narco, that gem of citizen journalism that provides both sides of the Mexican drug wars. 

Obama Sends $20 Million to Gaza

Presidential Determination No. 2009-15 of January 27, 2009 (Unexpected Urgent Refugee and Migration Needs Related To Gaza) finds that it is in the U.S. national interest to send $20 million and change to meet the "humanitarian needs of Palestinian refugees and conflict victims in Gaza."

How or whether the recipients are screened to prevent this money from going to HAMAS entities is anyone's guess.

Memorandum for the Secretary of State

By the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including section 2(c)(1) of the Migration and Refugee Assistance Act of 1962 (the ``Act''), as amended (22 U.S.C. 2601), I hereby determine, pursuant to section 2(c)(1) of the Act, that it is important to the national interest to furnish assistance under the Act in an amount not to exceed $20.3 million from the United States Emergency Refugee and Migration Assistance Fund for the purpose of meeting unexpected and urgent refugee and migration needs, including by contributions to international, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations and payment of administrative expenses of Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration of the Department of State, related to humanitarian needs of Palestinian refugees and conflict victims in Gaza. You are authorized and directed to publish this memorandum in the Federal Register.

(Presidential Sig.)

THE WHITE HOUSE, Washington, January 27, 2009

[FR Doc. E9-2488 Filed 2-3-09; 8:45 am] Billing code 4710-10-P