Raymond Davis Remanded for 14 More Days; U.S./Af/PakTrilateral Meeting Postponed

A heavy police deployment guarded the court premises as Raymond Davis was presented in court. –Photo by AP

Yesterday, on the day Davis's remand to police custody for investigation of the charges against him expired, the Lahore High Court placed him on a 14-day judicial remand. Presumably, the next step after judicial remand is to bring him to trial, unless the Pakistani federal government finds that he has diplomatic immunity.

“He has been remanded in judicial custody for 14 days. The next hearing will be on February 25,” Punjab government prosecutor Abdul Samad told reporters.

“He is being sent to central jail Kot Lakhpat,” said police official Suhail Sukhera in reference to the high-security prison in the eastern city of Lahore, where the US official confessed to shooting two men in self-defence last month.

Punjab Prosecutor Abdus Samad says the judge also has ordered that the Pakistani government clarify whether or not the man enjoys diplomatic immunity, as the US says he does, AFP reports.

The US says the American, identified by Pakistanis as Raymond Davis, shot two Pakistanis dead in late January in self-defense because they were trying to rob him.

Washington insists his detention is illegal under international agreements covering diplomatic immunity.

The U.S. Consul General in Lahore, Carmela Conroy, responded with this statement:

Good evening.

Today, American diplomat Raymond Davis was remanded into judicial detention in Lahore in connection with an incident in this city on January 27.

We understand that eyewitnesses at the scene said that Ray acted in self defense when confronted with two armed men on a motorcycle. We also understand that these men were found with stolen property and, as the police stated today, a loaded gun. We regret that authorities did not consider these eyewitness accounts and physical evidence when they stated that this was not a case of self-defense.

As a member of the Administrative and Technical staff at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, Raymond Davis is entitled to full immunity from criminal prosecution by Pakistan under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961. All countries, including my country and your country, freely agreed to abide by these rules. Under the rules, he should be freed immediately.

We respect the law and Pakistan's sovereignty, and expect all representatives of our government to respect the laws of our host nation. We respect the people of Pakistan and enjoy working and living in this country. Americans and Pakistanis can accomplish so much together. We need to resolve this case immediately and continue our work, including cooperation in education and health, our common fight against extremist violence, and building bridges between the people of Pakistan and America.

This incident was a tragedy, and we feel tremendous sorrow over the loss of life. We extend our deep sympathy to all the family members who have been affected.

Thank you.

I take it as a bad sign that Davis has now been placed in jail, whereas until yesterday he had been held much more safely and discretely in an office at a police training center.

But at least we now have a statement of regret from a U.S. official - we feel tremendous sorrow over the loss of life - and that small gesture, however belated, might actually have some calming effect on the Pakistanis who control Davis's fate.

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Update. A few minutes after I posted this I saw the following press release from the State Department spokesman:

In light of the political changes in Pakistan and after discussions with Afghan and Pakistani officials in Washington, it was agreed to postpone the Trilateral Meeting scheduled for February 23-24. We remain committed to robust engagement between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States, as we share many issues of mutual concern and benefit from being at the same table. We look forward to convening a very productive Trilateral Meeting at the earliest opportunity.

I had discounted the vague murmurs about U.S. retaliation that appeared in the press over the last couple days, but evidently they were true. We are making the Davis case a major diplomatic incident.

U.S. Embassy Islamabad Issues Statement With New Info About Lahore Shooting

Well, it took them a day or so to think it over, but the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad has finally issued a statement about the arrest of Raymond Allen Davis. Presumably they had consular access to Davis yesterday, and waited to get his account of his actions before coming out with the statement.

The official position is that Davis is entitled to diplomatic immunity from arrest. Reportedly, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry disagrees, although they have not yet responded to our embassy's statement with one of their own.

The embassy statement also claims that Davis was acting in self-defense, and it adds a new twist to substantiate that claim. It says the two Pakistanis Davis killed had robbed others at gun point a few minutes before in the same area.

Here's the statement:

U.S. Embassy Calls for Release of American Diplomat

January 29, 2011

Islamabad - The United States Embassy in Pakistan calls for the immediate release of a U.S. diplomat unlawfully detained by authorities in Lahore.

The diplomat, assigned to the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, has a U.S. diplomatic passport and Pakistani visa valid until June 2012.

On January 27, the diplomat acted in self-defense when confronted by two armed men on motorcycles. The diplomat had every reason to believe that the armed men meant him bodily harm. Minutes earlier, the two men, who had criminal backgrounds, had robbed money and valuables at gunpoint from a Pakistani citizen in the same area.

When detained, the U.S. diplomat identified himself to police as a diplomat and repeatedly requested immunity under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Local police and senior authorities failed to observe their legal obligation to verify his status with either the U.S. Consulate General in Lahore or the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad. Furthermore, the diplomat was formally arrested and remanded into custody, which is a violation of international norms and the Vienna Convention, to which Pakistan is a signatory.

We regret that this incident resulted in loss of life.

We greatly value the cooperation and partnership between Pakistan and the United States, which is vital to the interests of both countries. The U.S. Embassy is committed to working closely with the Pakistani government to secure the immediate release of the diplomat, as required under Pakistani and international law.

Pakistani news media are, indeed, reporting today that the two dead men had been on a crime spree minutes before they encountered Davis. Of course, Davis could not have known about that when he saw the two men park their motorcycle in front of his car, so he still bears the burden of showing he was in fear for his life when he opened fire on them. But this information certainly helps his case.

Meanwhile, though it was initially reported that the two deceased motorcyclists had no criminal record, the police registered FIRs [First Information Reports, which are complaints filed by Pakistani police when they receive information about the commission of a crime] by victims against them posthumously on Friday, police sources told The Express Tribune.

The complainants, Doctor Farzand and Sheharyar Malik, in a written application, state that the two had robbed them of their mobiles and cash just before the incident and were fleeing.

As evidence, the two have referred to phone logs of calls made to Rescue 1-5 about the incident right after it happened. The police say that two mobile phones were recovered from the deceased which matched the description of those the applicants had complained to 1-5 had been stolen.

However, the police had also shown the recovery of foreign currency from the deceased, which they say had also been looted. On the other hand, there is yet to be a complaint regarding the theft of foreign currency on the day of the incident.

In the FIR registered against Davis, the police have also included charges of carrying an illegal weapon – a Glock pistol and two magazines. The police also recovered a digital camera, a phone tracker with a charger.

-- snip --

Conversely, the police so far have no information about the other vehicle that came to rescue Davis and crushed a motorcyclist – Ibadullah – in the process. After killing the man, the vehicle fled from the scene. Davis did not disclose who was heading to his rescue, but did tell the police that, after the incident, he telephoned his Regional Security Officer who might have sent some officials for his rescue.

A police officer, on condition of anonymity, said that they had, through the Lahore Capital City Police Officer, sent a formal request to Pakistan’s foreign office to contact the US Consulate to identify those in the vehicle for their arrest.

Today's WaPo story on the embassy statement includes some new, unattributed, background about Davis and his employment in Pakistan.

Davis arrived in Pakistan in September 2009 as a "technical adviser" to the consulate in Lahore, according to sources who said his job was to assist in vetting visa applicants. His initial three-month diplomatic visa, listing his birth year as 1974 and a home address in Las Vegas, has been repeatedly extended at U.S. request since then.

The CIA has declined to comment on whether Davis worked for the agency, although Pakistani officials said they do not believe he is an intelligence agent. Under special budget provisions, the State Department has given diplomatic status to hundreds of temporary employees hired in recent years, some of them through contractors, to bolster the ranks of rapidly expanding embassies in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Vetting visa applicants? OK. Does Lahore even have visa services? I don't know. But it does have a new Public Diplomacy team, and my heart goes out to those poor people.

More to come.

WaPo's Spytalk Quotes Fred Burton

A commenter kindly sent me a link to today's WaPo SpyTalk column, which quotes a retired Diplomatic Security counterterrorism specialist who speculates "that the American involved in a fatal shootout in Lahore, Pakistan, was the victim of a spy meeting gone awry, not the target of a robbery or car-jacking attempt."

"It looks like an informant meet gone bad more than a car-jacking attempt,” said Fred Burton, a former deputy chief of the U.S. Diplomatic Security Service’s counter-terrorism division.

Early reports were sketchy. Many said the American, identified in the Pakistani press variously as Raymond David, or just “Davis,” had shot two armed men on a motorcycle “in self defense” as they approached his car in a robbery attempt. As the American sped away, another Pakistani on a motorcycle was killed, according to the reports.

-- snip --

According to Burton, who worked on several major terrorism cases in the 1980s and 1990s, the incident showed that David “had outstanding situational awareness to recognize the attack unfolding and shoot the other men.”

“It shows a high degree of firearms discipline and training,” Burton added. “Either the consulate employee's route was compromised by terrorist or criminal surveillance, or it's feasible he was set up in some sort of double-agent operation, if this wasn't a criminal motive.”

Fred Burton works for a private sector threat analysis company, and he is of necessity a promoter of both himself and his company, STRATFOR. Here's his self-description of his background. Others have been less than impressed by him. Personally, I think STRATFOR's reports are perfectly serviceable private sector threat analysis, but you have to take a lot of Burton's stuff down a few levels of melodrama.

Someone sent me STRATFOR's report on the Lahore incident this afternoon, and I've copied excepts from it below.

Three Pakistani locals were killed in Lahore on Jan. 27 in an incident involving a U.S. consular employee. The employee, identified by the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad as Raymond Davis, said he fired in self-defense, according to police reports. Details are still sketchy, and the investigation is ongoing. However, based on initial accounts, it appears that Davis was practicing good situational awareness and thwarted a robbery or possibly an assassination.

In Davis’ account of the incident (relayed via Lahore police to Pakistani media), he said he noticed several motorcycle riders approaching his vehicle, and one pulled out a pistol. At that point, Davis shot and killed one of the motorcyclists with a 9 mm pistol. A second wounded motorcyclist reportedly died later in the hospital, and a vehicle fleeing the scene (it is unclear if it belonged to Davis or another consular employee) hit and killed a bystander.

The shooting took place at a prominent roundabout (there are conflicting reports as to whether it occurred at the Mazang or the Qartaba roundabout) in the afternoon, with many witnesses who allegedly corroborated Davis’ account.

--snip --

The situation Davis was in is a common one for quick robberies and is also used for assassinations: He was in his vehicle, stopped at a traffic light, and vulnerable to gunmen on motorcycles who could quickly maneuver next to him and flee the scene just as quickly. This assassination tactic has been used in Pakistan, (a general was assassinated in Islamabad in 2009), Yemen, Greece (the November 17 militant group killed multiple U.S. officials this way during the 1970s and 1980s) and elsewhere. It is possible that this attack was a robbery attempt (very common in Lahore), but since the target was a U.S. Consulate employee in a high state of alert (indicating he was trained to maintain situational awareness), assassination cannot be ruled out.

That Davis was driving alone in an unmarked vehicle (no diplomatic plates or flags, meaning that it was meant to blend in) without the standard security presence and while wearing a wireless headset indicates that he could have been acting covertly. Additionally, according to eyewitnesses Davis took pictures of the individuals he had shot, indicating that he knew to collect evidence (and thus was well-trained and prepared).

That last paragraph strikes me as unwarranted and way too dramatic. As those who are posted in critical-threat places know, it is not uncommon for U.S. diplomatic vehicles to have nondescript local license plates in an attempt to lower their public profiles. There is no need to read any covert / intelligence meaning into that. Likewise for the use of a headset or other wireless device, or the fact that Davis used a camera.

The simplest, and the least dramatic, explanation is that Davis was the target of a criminal attack, such as a robbery or carjacking, which as STRATFOR says are common in Lahore. Davis did indeed maintain 'situational awareness' and so forth, but that, too, is not uncommon today for U.S. mission personnel of all kinds.

I see no reason to suppose that Davis was any sort of exotic type such as an intelligence agent, military Special Forces, or a security guy.

Lahore Post-Shooting Video

Here's a poor-quality video, probably taken with a cell phone, showing Raymond Davis and the crowd of Lahorees who surrounded his car after he shot two men he believed were attacking him. You can see the hostility of the crowd. Some time after this video ends Davis was rescued by staff from the consulate, in the course of which a pedestrian was killed when he was struck by the consulate's vehicle.

A couple observations.

First, the video clearly shows five to seven penetrations - bullet holes - in the windshield of Davis's car. That fits with the scenario given out by Pakistani police spokesmen: Davis was stopped at a traffic signal when he saw two men on a motorcycle blocking his path, saw a gun, and opened fire on them without further ado. BTW, firing a pistol through a windshield is perfectly feasible, and is the preferred last resort in that situation. The only odd thing is that there were so few bullet holes, especially given that the type of pistol he reportedly used holds a 15-round magazine.

Second, it appears that Davis is wearing a blue-bordered photo ID badge on a cord around his neck. That clinches the case that he is not some super spook sneaking around Lahore on a classified mission. More like someone who ducked out of the consulate at lunch hour to run an errand.

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Curious Incident in Lahore, Pakistan

First reports are invariably wrong to greater or lesser extents, so take the following news with a grain of salt.

Pakistani news media are reporting that a U.S. citizen, whom they describe as an employee of U.S. Consulate Lahore, shot two Pakistanis to death Thursday night in self-defense, and that a third Pakistani was killed in a traffic accident caused by a consulate vehicle that came to the scene to extricate the U.S. citizen from a crowd that formed after the shooting.

So far, I've seen no official confirmation that the American involved, who was identified by local press reports as Raymond Davis, actually is an employee of the consulate, the Department of State, or any other U.S. government agency. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. Maybe he's a contractor, maybe a TDYer. All I know is that I didn't find the name "Raymond Davis" in the current Key Officers List.

Whatever else he is, he is the subject of a big public relations problem at the moment.

Details of the incident vary a bit from source to source, but here's the version carried on MSNBC this morning:

LAHORE, Pakistan — An American consular employee traveling in a car in Pakistan shot and killed two armed men on a motorcycle as they tried to rob him on Thursday, police said. A pedestrian was also killed by a speeding American car trying to help, an officer said.

The employee, who the U.S. embassy said worked for the American consulate in Lahore, was sitting in his car at a traffic signal when two men chasing him aboard a motorcycle opened fire.

The man returned the fire in self-defense, police told Reuters, wounding the two attackers, who both died later in the hospital. Police said a consulate car that came to the scene later struck and killed a pedestrian.

Aslam Tarim, Lahore police chief, said in broadcast comments that the U.S. national had been taken into custody at a police station.

Police official Omar Saeed had earlier told Reuters the man had opened fire in self-defense.

"We are investigating whether it was a robbery attempt or something else," he said.

GEO-TV has video of the public protests that followed the incident.



Reuters has a good still photo of the car that is in police custody today.














I see an ordinary (non-armored) sedan with ordinary (non-diplomatic) plates, and its rear window shattered. Reportedly, the front windshield was punctured in several places. I'm sure the police will be able to determine whether the car provides any forensic evidence that clarifies what happened.

Several local news media are reporting that police have also taken into custody a pistol and three cell phones.

One local press report added a couple interesting tidbits about the incident:

Witnesses said they had seen the two armed trying to hold up the US national. They said they had then seen the American firing at the two men. The US national took photos of the two men after they fell to the ground on being hit by bullets, the witnesses said.

The American spoke in Urdu and told people who surrounded his car that he had acted in self-defence, they said. People protested in the area after the incident and burnt tyres to block roads.

So what do we have here, assuming the news reports are accurate? A U.S. citizen associated with the consulate who was driving himself around Lahore alone in a local vehicle, and who reacted to an apparent ambush by firing at two armed men. After which he had the presence of mind to photograph the scene and then to explain himself to the crowd of locals who had come to see what had happened.

And that's all I have to say about that, to quote Forrest Gump. I'm sure an official statement from the embassy or the Department spokesman will come later today.

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