Now that all the journalists, commentators, public policy analysts and barristas - those last two categories overlap - have gotten tired of chasing their tails around and around over last week's preposterous phony reorg plan leak, finally we have
the real thing released by the SecState himself.
Bottom Line Up Front, as we're told to say in memos, State is looking at a 15 percent reduction in force and the closure of a not-yet-defined number of overseas missions.
The first round of voluntary deferred resignations reduced the ranks a bit already, and a second round was initiated last Friday by a late afternoon email from the new M-DR. In addition to that, I know that some PSC contractors were let go, as were probationary employees.
How many more reductions will be needed to hit the 15 percent goal? Beats me, but I've seen estimates as low as 700 and as high as 2,500.
Now, what about the closure of some embassies and consulates? Which ones will go? Lists have floated around for weeks but to the best of my knowledge nothing official has been released.
Moreover, and much more interesting to me, how will that decision to close a post be made? Instead of publishing a list, whoever is in charge should instead identify rational criteria for making that choice. Such an approach would be fair and be seen as fair, and could be defended before Congress and our various special interests. It might even make sense to the public.
For instance, how many reporting cables did a post send last year? How many visas issued? How many ACS cases handled? How many desk positions does it support? At some tiny posts all of those figures are in the single digits.
Objectively and empirically, some overseas posts are not worth the considerable costs to keep them open. And their regional bureaus back in DC know that better than anyone.
None of this is new, of course. Back in the Clinton administration days the Department reevaluated its overseas presence and identified 20 or 25 posts that could be closed, according to the
official history of those years.
That happened back when VP Al Gore was nosily 'reinventing government' as his ticket to succeeding Clinton in 2020. The reinvention worked out about as well as Gore's political future did. OTOH, they reduced the size of government by about 400,000 positions, or around twenty percent.
I say, always take the long view. We've been here before, and we'll be here again. Government never really gets reinvented. If you want to have a career that lasts a considerable time you've got to roll with the punches.