Victimless Crime With a Different Twist

Here's a good news story to end the year on. From the website of the Multnomah (Oregon) County Sheriff's Office: Naked Home Invader Captured After Senior Citizen Grabs His 'Cahoochies'

Today [December 31] at 6:30 am, an 88-year old woman in her bathrobe was confronted by a naked man who had entered her home in the 2500 block of SE 287th Avenue through an unlocked sliding door. The man, saying nothing, backed her into the living room of the house and pushed her face down onto a chair. Before whatever plans the suspect might have had, the woman reached behind her and grabbed the man by the crotch, "giving him a good squeeze." The man tore free and ran back out the way he had come in.

A Multnomah County Code Enforcement Officer just happened to be in the area and heard the call come out over his radio. He parked at SE 287th and Division and saw two cars drive by him. The officer got the license plate information that allowed Troutdale officers to locate the car in the vicinity. The driver, identified as Michael G. Dick, 46, of Gresham, who matched the description of the suspect, was detained, questioned by Multnomah County detectives and then booked on charges of burglary, harassment and private indecency charges, with bail currently set at $110,000. The victim was quite shaken up, but not injured and wishes to remain anonymous. Other charges are pending. A photo of the suspect is available on-line.

I haven't seen an interview with the (near) victim. I don't know if she ever took a self-defense or rape prevention course, whether she is a fitness nut, or how she handles herself. But whatever she's been doing that makes her bold and resourceful enough to drive off a home invader/rapist half her age, keep it up.

Islamabad's Marriott Hotel is Open for Business Again

The hotel's owner vowed that he would reopen in time for New Year's, and so he has, just three months after the suicide bombing that killed 60 people and nearly destroyed the building.

Strangely, there was no coverage of the reopening in most of the mass media I checked this morning. Not even CNN or the BBC covered it. At least France 24 ran an Agence France-Presse story: Islamabad's 'fortress' Marriott reopens after suicide bombing.

The AFP story highlighted the new physical security measures that will prevent a repeat truck-bomb attack.

The hotel's new bombproof wall -- which is 14 feet (3.5-metre) high and 15 feet thick -- is capable of absorbing the shock of even a massive explosion like the one in September, said Hashoo chief operating officer Peter Alex.

Visitors will have to pass through a bombproof room within the wall in order to gain access to the hotel, which will feature sophisticated scanning equipment, he said.

There will however be no parking at the hotel. Even vehicles ferrying VIPs to the Marriott will have to deposit guests at the front gate and drive on.

The story included the picture above, which shows part of the new perimeter wall. What we see there is a pyramidal stack of earth-filled barriers (probably Hesco Concertainers, a modern version of the ancient Gabion field fortification) placed along the line of the hotel's front perimeter. Unseen in the photo is the new entry control point where visitors and their luggage will be screened before they proceed to the hotel. Together, the perimeter wall and the entry controls ensure the hotel will have the maximum available setback distance from the presumed points of detonation of any future truck-bombs, and setback is the best protection a building can have against bomb blast.

I expect that the Concertainers are a temporary arrangement, since their polypropylene walls degrade after a couple of years outdoors. There are many ways to build permanent anti-ram walls that are equally effective but far more aesthetic. And, despite the statement by Hashoo's COO about a "bombproof wall ... capable of absorbing the shock of even a massive explosion" there really is no protective benefit to that wall other than keeping uninspected vehicles out. The idea that a humongous big perimeter wall will protect buildings in its 'shadow' from bomb blast is a fallacy.


PS - The blast wall fallacy is so widely believed, even by consultants and contractors who are paid enough that they should know better, that I feel compelled to cite a reference work to prove my point. The U.S. Defense Department's guide to mitigating vehicle bombs makes it quite clear that an effective blast wall must be wider and taller than the building it protects, and must not be more than one story height away from the face of the building. A wall at the perimeter of a compound, no matter how massive it may be, does nothing to protect conventionally constructed buildings that are some distance away from the wall.

If you read page 42 of the linked reference you will have a better understanding of blast walls and their limitations than a certain mid six-figure security consultant I could name, as well as hundreds of less expensive but equally misinformed experts.

Afghanistan is No Country For Old Men

I'm a bit perplexed by the tactic of offering erectile dysfunction medication to Afghan warlords as an inducement for them to cooperate with the CIA, as reported yesterday by the Washington Post (Little Blue Pills Among the Ways CIA Wins Friends in Afghanistan).

I'm perplexed because, well, frankly, what kind of warlord is it who needs a little blue pill to get his freak on?

What kind of tribal strongman suffers from the sad disorder that Leon Phelps ("the Ladies Man") so poignantly termed Chronic Wangular Softitude?

I'm thinking maybe they're the kind that we really don't need on our team.

From the story:

"You didn't hand it out to younger guys, but it could be a silver bullet to make connections to the older ones," said one retired operative familiar with the drug's use in Afghanistan. Afghan tribal leaders often had four wives -- the maximum number allowed by the Koran -- and aging village patriarchs were easily sold on the utility of a pill that could "put them back in an authoritative position," the official said.

On a personal level, I'm sympathetic to the plight of an aging patriarch. But, let's face it, pharmacological reinforcement is a stopgap measure at best. Once a patriarch has lost his "authoritative position," whether its just among his four wives or among the village as a whole, it's time for him to step down and make way for one of those younger guys that our retired operative seems to disdain.

Forget about the little blue pills. Better we should offer those (im)potentates nice retirement condos in Florida.

My Christmas Eve Tradition

After an exhausting day of last-minute shopping, I'm watching my traditional Christmas Eve movie, The Crossing, which depicts Washington's crossing of the Delaware River and his surprise attack on the Hessian garrison at Trenton. It isn't what you customarily think of as a Christmas movie, however, the Battle of Trenton did happen on December 25-26, 1776, so I think it qualifies.

Click on the embedded video below for a scene from near the end of the movie, in which the Continental Army, which had marched from the Delaware River to Trenton in two columns, converges on the Hessian barracks. Washington calls out "the Army will advance" and the troops - who, at that low point in the War of Independence, were only a ragged remnant of the force Congress had raised in 1775 - charge forward.

The young aide who gallops up to Washington early in this clip is Alexander Hamilton, the future Treasury Secretary. Hamilton and one other officer had just taken out the Hessian lookout post, killing the four pickets they found there. [Now that's a Treasury Secretary! It's probably been 100 years since we last had a Treasury Secretary who could handle a saber half so well. I'll bet Henry Paulson couldn't kill even one Hessian in hand-to-hand combat, not on his best day.] While that action at the lookout post happens to be fictitious, in real life Hamilton personally led far more impressive assaults, most notably the storming of Redoubt #10 at the Siege of Yorktown.



The Crossing is really a superb movie, both for its historical accuracy and for its unparalleled depiction of the character of George Washington. And I insist that it is also a Christmas movie, despite the grim and gory nature of the story. Having peace on earth and good will toward men required, in the historical circumstances of 1776, that dedicated Continental soldiers cross a frozen river and take the bayonet to the Republic's enemies. If it's Christmas Eve, you can bet I'm watching this movie.

On the Generosity of Arabs

Arabs lavish jewels on Secretary of State Rice and other administration officials, reports the Associated Press.

I can empathize, since I have also received lavish gifts from Arab states in the course of my official travels. The Saudis once gave me a nice Waterman pen, that I still use, and last year the Kuwaitis gave me a Cartier ball pen, which I found a tad feminine and re-gifted to my wife.

I found this part of the story significant:

Some gifts reflect the recipient's specialty. Gen. Peter Pace, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff received two machine guns — one mounted — worth $1,300 from his Colombian and Russian counterparts, while Defense Secretary Robert Gates got a $3,200 decorative Arab knife from a Bahraini official and a steel dagger valued at $345 from the Jordanian king.

Now it becomes clear why Arabs give me pens! What gift could better reflect my specialty as a pencil-pusher?

FBI = Fraudulently Bounteous Incomes

Where was Deep Throat when this scam [FBI Managers Encouraged Workers in Iraq to Bill for Time Off ] was going on?

FBI counterterrorism division managers condoned a time-billing practice under which 1,150 employees between 2003 and 2007 earned about $71,000 during a typical 90-day tour -- nearly triple the typical worker's salary, Inspector General Glenn Fine reported.

The practice violated federal law and regulations and accounted for at least $7.8 million to the $99 million taxpayer cost of the FBI efforts.

Millions of dollars were wrongly paid to many FBI employees over a period of years with the connivance of their supervisors and managers? Wow. It's a good thing they're cops, otherwise that's illegal.

The FBI has roughly 12,000 agents and a couple thousand more support professionals, so the 1,150 employees who wrongly benefited represent almost 10 percent of its workforce. Even assuming repeat tours in Iraq, its still a non-trivial percentage. With so many people submitting, approving, and processing this improper time-billing, we may assume that this practice was widely known within the FBI.

Here's the part I liked best:

T.J. Harrington, then deputy assistant director of the counterterrorism division, said the pay was justified because agents were constantly on call, had no freedom to use off-time and exercised to maintain fitness and relieve stress, the report stated. Generous pay was needed to attract volunteers for dangerous and uncomfortable duty, he said.

Say, why didn't the State Department try that incentive when they were looking for more volunteers to go to Iraq? The recruitment pitch might have gone like this:

"While in Iraq you'll receive R&Rs and danger pay. Even better (but keep this on the down-low), we'll look the other way while you defraud the government about your Time and Attendance."

"Really? That's a pretty sweet deal. Where do I sign up?"

If somebody doesn't get criminally prosecuted for this, I'll be more impressed than ever by the FBI's impunity to political consequences.

The Five-Year Rule of Terrorism Prediction

The Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, which is co-chaired by Senator Bob Graham (D-Florida), recently released its report, which you can read here. The first sentence of the Executive Summary consists of this attention-getter:

"The Commission believes that unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013."

In other words, Senator Graham wants the world to know that a panel of experts has predicted we have a better than 50-50 chance of a terrorist attack involving some kind of WMD in the next five years. The panel further predicted, elsewhere in the report, that the weapon to be used is more likely to be a biological agent than either chemicals or nukes. Nowhere in the report did they describe the methodology, if any, they used to make those predictions.

Senator Graham has also made this, even bolder, prediction:

"If we were to ask any person who has a reasonable knowledge of the capabilities of terrorists and the extent of America's vulnerability the question, what is the likelihood the United States of America will suffer another successful terrorist attack on our homeland within the next 5 years, the consensus answer is certainly going to be almost a 100 percent likelihood of a successful attack."

Senator Graham made the above prediction on March 4, 2004 (you can read it here, in the Congressional Record, about 15 paragraphs into page S2014), so we'll have to wait three more months to see if he will be proved right. Of course, he can never be proven wrong, even if there is no attack by next March, since he hedged his bets by making the warning hypothetical and by using the word "almost."

His warning about weapons of mass destruction is even slipperier than his 2004 prediction, since: (1) it's much more modest, claiming only a little better than coin-flip odds, (2) it covers the entire world versus just the United States, and (3) it doesn't specify that the attack will be successful. He goes out on a limb only be saying this future attack will involve some kind of WMD.

Such non-falsifiable alarmism works best when it sunsets after five years. That's soon enough to call for immediate action, but still so far off in the future that the predictor won't lose credibility if his warnings don't pan out. Paul Elhrich's many predictions and quotes on environmental and economic topics pretty much define the art form of mid-term scaremongering. All his past predictions have been wrong, but evidently the public has too short an attention span to hold that against him, since his books keep selling.

I can confidently make three predictions of my own. First, neither Senator Graham nor anyone else will mention his previous warning when March 2009 comes and goes without an attack. Second, no one will remember his latest warning when 2013 arrives. Third, Senator Graham will continue to renew his terrorist attack predictions in five year increments as long as he is in public life.