Maybe it’s my 20 years as a labor lawyer, having gone through dozen and dozens of collective bargaining negotiating sessions, but I’m amazed at how little the press and activists on both sides understand what is going on.
-- snip --
In order to get the best deal for his side, [Speaker Boehner] has to convince both his own side and the other side that there is no more room to spare. So, first you let the clock run down toward midnight. The media hysteria helps Boehner in this regard. Then — and this is important — it can not come down to a single issue. A savvy negotiator needs two. Oh, and look — Boehner has two.
He has the riders and he has the amount of cuts. If the Democrats really can’t abide by the riders, they have to agree to more cuts. If they can’t go any higher on cuts, they need to fork over something on riders. This is rudimentary negotiation strategy.
-- snip --
And sure enough (as I wrote this morning) Boehner is going to get his way today, passing a week extension and funding for the Defense Department through the end of FY 2011. No way that doesn’t get passed by the Senate and signed by the president. And in a few days (maybe less) there will be a deal on the rest. And rest assured, Boehner will have squeezed the Dems as hard as possible. You’ll know because he will get either more than $33 billion in cuts or something on the riders. Could be hopeful.
Boehner does, indeed, come from a business executive background, so this makes sense.
As the Zen Master said of the little boy who got a pony, "we'll see."
16 comments:
You nailed it TSB!... and I think Mrs
Obama's shopping trip this weekend came into the strategy. Is this "reverse triangulation"?? GWB
Obama doesn't seem to be keeping his cool as the clock runs down. He's showing his nerves with all the dithering about whether or not he'll take his next vacation, or about Michele's shopping trips, or whatever.
Boehner does negotiations a lot better, I must say.
TSB: I loved the way Harry Reid thanked everyone except Obama. I can hardly wait til next week. GWB
I missed that. Yeah, Obama did not earn any gratitude. And that is not going to help him with the next - and much bigger - negotiation over the 2012 budget.
TSB: Check out my special post to you on THE SKEPTICAL BUREAUCAT. gwb
TSB: Gates' last visit to the troops in Iraq was a class act and telling. It looks like he knows there is no "realistic" reason to stay in Iraq.Those old intelligence committee war promoters aren't going to like this. Also, last Pak drone strike was Mar 17th! with 147 civilians killed and CIA guys sent home?? (Dawn)GWB
The big drone strike in March killed only 47, I think, but the total for all seven strikes in March could have been 147, I'm sure.
Dawn says all the love is gone from CIA-ISI relations? I think the best advise we can give the CIA is to move on with it's life. They'll find somebody else they like even more.
Of course, if we would wind down our involvement in Afghanistan, the ISI would matter less and less anyway.
True. But isn't Pakistan's biggest fear that we give up in Afghanistan and the Taliban succeeds? I wonder how close Pakistan is to total economic collapse? GWB
I don't think Pakistan is at all worried about the Talibs. They didn't bother Pakistan when they last ran Afghanistan, why (and how) would they now?
OK: But isn't the US leaving Afghanistan kind of like leaving
Pakistan to the State Department
and it's budget? GWB
IMO we should have left Afghanistan right after the Northern Alliance defeated Mullah Omar's Taliban forces and AQ was scattered.
Without us there, Afghanistan would go on as normal. (Al Qaeda was a foreign element that rode in on Mullah Omar's hospitality, and isn't normal or indigenous there.) And without the $100+ billion we spend there every year, none of the indigenous factions could afford to cause much trouble for each other.
TSB: Zardari agrees but see... there is that pipeline again! GWB
War in Afghanistan destabilising Pakistan: Zardari
“We have all the gas in the world waiting to go through to markets in India and the Red Sea but it cannot be brought in until Afghanistan is settled.http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/11/war-in-afghanistan-destabilising-pakistan-zardari.html
Who did he say it was who has "all the gas in the world"? Certainly not Pakistan. It is #58 in the world in oil production, #22 in natural gas, and is a net importer of both. It's proven reserves rank #49 for oil and #25 for gas. So it's a minor energy player.
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=PK
Anyway, isn't Pakistan's main security problem India and "Indian-occupied Kashmir?" Afghanistan may be our fault, but war with India is their fault.
I think he "means" we could have all this gas coming thru here in the pipeline from the north and thru pakistan. No, you are right.. they are dying because they have no natural gas. I think India would also love to have that pipeline because they need the nat gas too!. GWB
I'm not sure who the gas exporter would be. Not China. Iran?
Pipelines are incredibly expensive, so I'd think any exporter would rather reach the Indian and Pakistani markets by sea.
One thing is certain: Zadari is known as "Mr. Ten Percent," and he figures there is something in it for him somewhere.
TSB:Uzbekistan - Oil - Gas - Pipelines
Uzbekistan is the eighth-largest producer of natural gas in the world, but lacks the ability to export most of it. Uzbekistan currently serves as a crucial ...
www.worldpress.org/specials/pp/uzbekistan.htm - Cached - Similar
THIS IS PART OF PEPE ESCOBAR'S PIPELINESTAN. GWB
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